The following article is based on a speech delivered by the writer, the Former President of Sri Lanka, at the 8th Indian Ocean Conference, organized by the India Foundation in association with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Oman, held in Muscat, Oman.- Editors
We are gathered here in Muscat, near one of the most geo-strategically significant sea lanes of communication, the Strait of Hormuz, for the 8th edition of the Indian Ocean Conference. I must express my gratitude to the Omani government for the warm hospitality extended to all of us.
Oman and Sri Lanka were both part of the Indian Ocean civilization that my colleague referred to earlier. The Omani navy famously defeated the Portuguese navy. At that time, Sri Lanka did not have a navy.
However, we triumphed over them on land. We had an armored corps, with elephants outfitted in leather armor. Our gunners and artillery came from India, alongside Rajput warriors.
In exchange, we constructed a co-wheel for the Portuguese, known as the Barandi co-wheel. This illustrates how the ancient Indian Ocean civilization operated. Once again, I thank the India Foundation for bringing us together. Your efforts to deepen maritime partnerships and highlight the significance of the Indian Ocean are invaluable.
I have been given the final word of the day, which gives me the opportunity to be somewhat diverse in my perspective. However, much of what I planned to say has already been covered by the previous speakers. So, instead, I will simply build upon their thoughts.
The land-centric perspective of the Indian Ocean, which disregards its role as a connector, has hindered our ability to create a comprehensive regional architecture. What have we truly achieved over the past three decades? Very little compared to other regions.
For millennia, the political, economic, and cultural interactions within the Indian Ocean region dominated the known world. The de-industrialization of India, the disruption of maritime trade, and the rise of European colonies two centuries ago have erased the potential of the Indian Ocean from our collective consciousness. In fact, Europe’s rise was motivated by its desire to dominate the Indies.
Some explorers, seeking new routes to the Indies, stumbled upon the Americas. If I were to think like President Trump, I would argue that the Americas should pay a fee to Asia annually. After all, without Asia, they would not have been “discovered.”
Now, we are witnessing a seismic geopolitical shift toward the Indian Ocean. Asia’s economic dynamism has been recognized as key to US prosperity, prompting a pivot toward Asia, beginning with President Clinton, continuing under President George Bush, and cemented by President Barack Obama’s “Pivot to India.” But it goes beyond that.
According to the 2017 PricewaterhouseCoopers report, World in 2050, of the top 30 global economies, India, Indonesia, and nine other countries from the Indian Ocean region—Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, Iran, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Thailand, South Africa, and Australia—will emerge as global economic powers. This is a significant development. Even if two or three of these countries are excluded, it still represents a substantial number.
By 2050, India will rank second, and Indonesia will be the largest economy. Meanwhile, China is set to claim the top spot. Through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China is securing two direct outlets to the Indian Ocean via Gwadar and Myanmar. Japanese investments are already flowing into Thailand and Vietnam, with plans to extend into India and Bangladesh.
Australia aims to become a renewable energy superpower. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is rising as a major player. Additionally, the potential of post-2050 East Africa, with its connections to the Atlantic Ocean, adds another crucial dimension to the Indian Ocean’s future. The Western Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal are poised to become booming economic sub-regions.
Consider the Makran coast, with Gwadar and Chabahar serving as gateways to Central Asia, the Gulf, the Middle East, and Europe. Oman, strategically located, stands to reap the benefits of this connectivity.
In the Bay of Bengal, Western China’s economy is already connected to the region via Myanmar, while India’s infrastructure projects extend through Myanmar and Thailand. The global maritime shipping route is another crucial aspect, with half of the world’s crude oil passing through this region.
Asia’s maritime dominance is evident. Around 30% of global oil is refined here, and some of the busiest ports in the world are located in the Indian Ocean region. Additionally, 50% of the world’s proven oil and natural gas reserves are located here, along with untapped undersea resources that are still largely unknown.
India and Sri Lanka, for example, are discussing how to access the cobalt reserves in the region. The potential is vast. This is a long-term perspective, focusing on the year 2050. However, in the short term, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook predicts that the global growth rate over the next two years will be driven by Asia.
We must think boldly. As Dr. Mahadeva mentioned earlier, it doesn’t hurt to think big. Fundamental changes are underway in the global strategic environment, signaling the end of US predominance. While not all may agree, I believe there has been an underestimation of China and Russia, and President Biden has placed excessive reliance on the West and NATO. For example, Western sanctions on Russia have had limited effect, and Russia has continued to function despite these efforts.
Today, the global power landscape is fragmented, and the future remains uncertain. The next US administration will play a key role in shaping the future of the Indian Ocean region, but the formation of BRICS shows that new power centers are emerging, and this group is here to stay. I don’t think even President Trump’s plans to move BRICS will succeed.
The rapid growth of China’s economy and military capabilities has led to its global power projection, allowing it to challenge US exceptionalism. The BRI, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and China’s naval strategy, which extends into the Indian Ocean, are reshaping the global order.
Despite these changes, we have yet to fully appreciate the significance of the Indian Ocean. For more than four decades, Japan has been a key economic partner to Indian Ocean countries, providing aid through institutions like the ADB and AGB. Japan has also played a political role in Sri Lanka, including its involvement in peace talks with the LTTE and, more recently, the establishment of the Commission for Truth, Unity, and Reconciliation.
France also plays an important role in the Indian Ocean through the Indian Ocean Commission and its four pillars. Island states, including Sri Lanka, should adopt the mindset of island nations, not just South Asian countries. We must engage with the Indian Ocean Commission and the Colombo Conclave to enhance our regional presence.
From South Africa to Australia, many countries in the region share historical ties as former British colonies. We have similar political institutions, judicial systems, and administrative structures. However, Britain’s decreasing presence in the Commonwealth raises the question of whether Indian Ocean countries should form a regional bloc, similar to what was done in the 1980s.
Beyond politics, the internet, the ICC, and cricket serve as unifying factors. Cricket, in particular, brings us together, which is why Prime Minister Abe spoke of the confluence of two seas to the Indian Lok Sabha.
In the past, the Indo-Pacific concept largely overlooked the Indian Ocean, treating it as a marginal region. But the ASEAN outlook on the Indo-Pacific has shifted focus, recognizing the distinct role of the Indian Ocean. Sri Lanka’s Track 1.5 conference on the future of the Indian Ocean was pivotal in defining this future.
In the current global scenario, littoral states must confront the issues facing the Indian Ocean, such as unity, governance, and the role of external powers.
Looking ahead to 2050, India will be the second or third largest global power, and it will be the dominant power in the Indian Ocean. India’s navy will rank as the third-largest globally, behind only the US and China’s PLA. India’s role in maritime governance, through initiatives like the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium and the Colombo Conclave, is crucial to regional stability.
We must continue strengthening these frameworks. India has already assumed the role of a “net security provider,” offering assistance during natural disasters, the COVID-19 pandemic, and Sri Lanka’s recent economic crisis.
India’s influence will continue to grow, and we must all work together within the framework of the Indian Ocean. Issues like freedom of navigation, undersea cables, and resource management must be prioritized. Hydrographic surveys, essential for both military and civilian use, must be managed transparently. Climate change, disaster management, and fisheries are other critical concerns that must be addressed collectively.
In closing, I echo Dr. Mahadeva’s point about economic cooperation. The Indian Ocean region must move towards greater economic integration. The global economy, especially under the Trump administration, is shifting, but our region can leverage its demographic advantages and unfulfilled potential in infrastructure, manufacturing, and technology to drive growth.
The geopolitics of the Indian Ocean in 2050 will depend on the relationships between India and China, which will be both competitive and cooperative. Additionally, many littoral states, including Indonesia, South Africa, and Saudi Arabia, are part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which will continue to influence the region.
The future of the Indian Ocean will be shaped by these evolving relationships. We must also address the role of UK assets in the AUKUS agreement and ensure that the Indian Ocean remains free from conflicts spilling over from the Pacific.
The Indian Ocean region must be recognized as a center of global power. We need to be multi-aligned and focused on peace and stability, committed to UNCLOS and the rules-based order. As the Minister’s Council meeting in Bengaluru in 2011 concluded, “The Indian Ocean is part of our collective destiny.”
It is time for us to act. We need a summit of the littoral states’ heads of government to address the critical issues facing the Indian Ocean. We must move toward a high-level center for the Indian Ocean, positioning ourselves for a prosperous and influential future by 2050. Otherwise, we risk missing out on the opportunities that lie ahead.
