Japan’s government has issued a stark warning about the potential devastation of a megaquake along the Pacific coast, projecting it could kill nearly 300,000 people and inflict economic damage equivalent to half the country’s GDP. The Cabinet Office’s updated report, released on Monday, estimates that such a disaster could cause ¥270 trillion ($1.81 trillion) in damage, a significant rise from previous projections due to inflation and updated terrain and flood data.
The megaquake, likely to occur along the Nankai Trough, could trigger massive tsunamis and the collapse of thousands of buildings. The quake, expected to reach a magnitude of 9, is predicted to cause catastrophic loss of life, with nearly 300,000 fatalities and over 1.2 million people displaced—about 10% of Japan’s population.
The Nankai Trough, a seabed zone where two tectonic plates converge, is known for producing major earthquakes every 100 to 150 years. Seismologists warn that strain has been building since the last major events in the 1940s. Japan’s earthquake investigation panel has increased the probability of a megaquake occurring within the next 30 years to over 80%.
The 2011 earthquake, which triggered a deadly tsunami and the Fukushima nuclear disaster, remains a haunting reminder of Japan’s vulnerability. Despite heavy investments in earthquake preparedness, the government acknowledges that more work is needed to safeguard communities from such a large-scale disaster.
