A significant number of the world’s biggest polluters, including the EU, Australia, South Africa, and India, are expected to miss a key UN deadline to submit updated climate targets, due to economic constraints and political challenges exacerbated by the election of former US President Donald Trump. The February 10 deadline for nations to present their updated climate plans, outlining specific targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, is fast approaching, but many countries are still far from meeting it.
Under the framework set by the Paris Agreement nearly a decade ago, nearly 200 nations committed to providing a roadmap for limiting global warming. Despite mounting scientific warnings that emissions must be halved by the end of the decade to prevent catastrophic climate change, many countries are struggling to meet even their 2030 goals, with emissions continuing to rise.
While nations such as the UK have made progress in submitting revised climate plans, many of the world’s largest economies are expected to fall short of the deadline. According to individuals familiar with the process, around one-quarter to one-third of the G20 economies are likely to submit their updated targets on time, a situation that has raised concerns over the global commitment to addressing climate change.
The Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has had a lasting impact on international climate efforts, contributing to a lack of leadership on climate policy in key countries. Nick Mabey, co-founder of the climate think tank E3G, noted that the political distractions caused by Trump’s presidency have diverted attention away from climate action.
Although there is no penalty for failing to meet the February 10 deadline, the delay raises alarms about potential backsliding in climate efforts. European Union officials have confirmed that the EU will be late in submitting its climate plan, known as a nationally determined contribution (NDC), citing concerns about balancing its ambitious green agenda with economic pressures. Political resistance within the EU, particularly from Poland, which holds the rotating presidency, has also delayed progress, with the country’s government expressing skepticism about stringent climate targets.
Other countries are also facing challenges in meeting the deadline. In Mexico, newly elected President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government has indicated it may submit its climate target mid-year, while South Africa aims for September. India’s NDC is also not expected to be submitted on time, and China is still weighing geopolitical developments following Trump’s election.
Countries such as Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, which have been less supportive of the Paris Agreement, have not yet provided updates on their progress. Argentina, meanwhile, is considering withdrawing from the Paris accord, although other nations and financial institutions are working to persuade it to remain in the pact.
Despite these delays, climate experts like Mabey argue that pushing back submission deadlines by a few months may be beneficial, as it would allow countries to develop more robust, ambitious plans. UN climate change head Simon Stiell has emphasized the importance of high-quality climate plans, describing them as “the most important policy documents of the century,” which will lay the foundation for a global clean energy boom.
