His name does not appear on the ballot and his face is absent from campaign posters, yet Myanmar’s general election unfolding this month revolves around a single figure: junta chief Min Aung Hlaing. According to Reuters, the 69-year-old general continues to shape the country’s political future four years after overthrowing the elected government of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, a coup that plunged Myanmar into a devastating civil war and left millions displaced.
Min Aung Hlaing has ruled since February 2021, presiding over a conflict that has killed at least 16,600 civilians, according to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project cited by Reuters. Large swathes of Myanmar’s borderlands are now controlled by ethnic armed groups and resistance forces, while the military has suffered battlefield setbacks that have dented its long-standing image as the guardian of national unity. Against this backdrop, the junta has launched a three-stage election process that it says will restore civilian rule, a claim rejected by the United Nations and Western rights groups, who say the polls are neither free nor fair.
In a New Year address delivered as votes from the first phase were being counted, Min Aung Hlaing said he intended to hand over “state responsibilities” to a new government. Yet Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy has been dissolved, and other major opposition parties are boycotting the vote, reinforcing widespread criticism that the election is engineered to keep the military in power through proxy parties. Reuters reports that early results show the military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party in the lead, with no date yet announced for final results.
Interviews conducted by Reuters with six people familiar with Min Aung Hlaing and two analysts of junta politics paint a picture of a rigid military commander who is also a shrewd political operator. While known for ruthlessness, he has shown a keen instinct for managing elites within the armed forces, distributing power and privilege in ways that limit internal dissent. Analysts say this approach has helped him survive mounting criticism from within the military despite heavy losses on the battlefield.
Naing Min Khant of the Institute for Strategy and Policy – Myanmar described the election as an elite management strategy rather than a genuine transition. By sharing responsibility through a controlled political process, the junta chief can diffuse blame, preserve cohesion within the officer corps and protect regime survival. Another former foreign official who has met Min Aung Hlaing told Reuters that his subtle political skills have reduced pressure that might have overwhelmed a less calculating leader.
Min Aung Hlaing has balanced rewards and punishment to neutralize rivals. Some senior generals have been placed in charge of lucrative military-linked businesses, while others have been detained or sidelined, including at least one potential successor. At the same time, key posts have been reserved for loyalists with diplomatic experience, a strategy that has helped the junta slowly emerge from isolation.
China’s backing has been particularly important. Reuters reported in December that Chinese support has strengthened the junta’s position and contributed to limited military gains on some fronts. Among Min Aung Hlaing’s trusted aides is Than Swe, a retired officer and former United Nations ambassador now serving as foreign minister, who has played a role in rebuilding ties with regional neighbours, including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which froze high-level engagement after the coup.
The general’s political ambitions predate the seizure of power. People familiar with him say that even before 2021, while serving as commander-in-chief, he cultivated ties with community and religious leaders, behaviour that went beyond the remit of a professional soldier. Born into a family from southern Myanmar, Min Aung Hlaing studied law before graduating from the Defence Services Academy in 1977, an institution that instills in officers the belief that the military is the ultimate protector of the nation, the Bamar majority and Buddhism.
That worldview, analysts say, underpinned his decision to stage the coup after Suu Kyi’s party overwhelmingly defeated a military-backed party in the 2020 election. One official familiar with his thinking told Reuters that Min Aung Hlaing felt justified, believing Suu Kyi ignored his concerns. Suu Kyi, now 80, is serving a 27-year sentence on charges she denies, and her current whereabouts remain undisclosed, though the junta insists she is in good health. A diplomatic push by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim to secure her release last year failed, with Min Aung Hlaing reportedly treating the issue as a red line.
Speculation is growing over whether the general truly intends to relinquish absolute power. After voting in Naypyitaw in late December, he told reporters he could not simply declare an ambition to become president, noting he does not lead a political party. However, Reuters cites sources saying he is considering appointing a successor as armed forces chief and transitioning into a fully political role himself, potentially as president, a position that carries significant executive authority under Myanmar’s constitution.
Even if a nominal civilian government takes office, the military will retain decisive influence. The constitution reserves key security ministries for serving officers and gives the armed forces control over their own affairs. Analysts and defectors alike say the next generation of military leaders is unlikely to dramatically alter course toward Suu Kyi or the resistance movement. As former junta major Naung Yoe told Reuters, dissatisfaction with Min Aung Hlaing’s leadership does not equate to sympathy for the revolution, suggesting that for Myanmar, the election may change faces but not the balance of power.
