The United States has released a State Department report alleging decades of Cuban espionage and political influence operations inside the United States, a move that has prompted renewed scrutiny of Washington’s increasingly assertive posture towards Havana. According to an analysis published by The Soufan Center, the report’s release, combined with recent accounts of military planning, has fuelled speculation that the Trump administration may be seeking to build broader public support for possible future action against Cuba.
Issued on 20 July, the State Department report, titled “Cuba: The Capital of 21st Century Communism,” alleges that Cuba has conducted a long-running campaign of espionage and political subversion aimed at exporting communist ideology into the United States. The document reviews Cuban activities from the early 1960s to the present, describing alleged efforts involving left-wing organisations, influence networks, guerrilla groups and intelligence operatives.
According to the report, organisations including the Venceremos Brigade were involved in influence operations targeting American universities, think tanks, non-profit organisations and political circles. It also identifies several Cuban and U.S.-based organisations that it says have links to what it describes as the “Cuban-aligned left,” while asserting that a number of political developments in recent U.S. history can be traced to actions by the Cuban government.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio promoted the report on social media, stating that the Cuban government had been the leading sponsor of radical leftism and Third Worldism in the United States for more than six decades and that the American public deserved to know the history of Cuban espionage and subversion.
The report was published five days after a CBS News investigation reported that senior Pentagon officials had examined several possible military options involving Cuba. Citing anonymous U.S. military officials, CBS reported that the Department of Defense had reviewed scenarios ranging from a limited air campaign to a ground intervention involving the 101st Airborne Division. According to the report, officials did not specify whether the objective would be limited regime change focused on Cuba’s political leadership or a broader operation targeting military forces and supporting an alternative political structure.
The Soufan Center notes that the CBS report followed earlier accounts that U.S. military planners had conducted concept-of-operations briefings examining contingency plans for Cuba and identifying logistical and personnel requirements. During the same period, U.S. Marines and Army aviation units participated in a U.S. Southern Command exercise around Cuba designed to demonstrate the military’s ability to conduct rapid multi-domain operations.
According to The Soufan Center, the Trump administration’s policy towards Cuba has shifted noticeably during the past six months. Early in the year, Rubio advocated economic reforms and signalled openness to limited diplomatic engagement, including contacts with individuals connected to former Cuban leader Raúl Castro during international meetings.
By late spring, however, the administration had adopted a more security-focused approach. President Donald Trump publicly remarked that Cuba was “next” while discussing U.S. foreign operations, while CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a rare public visit to Havana for meetings involving relatives of the Castro family and Cuban intelligence officials. Days later, Rubio was photographed with U.S. Southern Command Commander General Francis L. Donovan in front of a military map of Cuba, prompting further questions about Washington’s intentions.
The Soufan Center reports that Rubio has continued to press the Cuban government to expand the role of private enterprise, reduce the dominance of the military-linked conglomerate Grupo de Administración Empresarial S.A. (GAESA) in the economy and introduce broader economic reforms. According to the analysis, Cuba has implemented 176 free-market reforms since early July, easing restrictions affecting entrepreneurs, private banking, property development, multiple ownership structures and foreign investment as the country continues to face economic pressure.
The Soufan Center also notes that President Trump has reportedly favoured rapid military operations capable of achieving political objectives quickly, pointing to the January 2026 operation in Venezuela as an example of that preference. At the same time, the analysis states that the United States is unlikely to undertake simultaneous large-scale military operations in both Cuba and Iran while substantial U.S. military assets remain committed to the Middle East.
The administration appears to be maintaining a more assertive posture towards Cuba while awaiting progress on a revised memorandum of understanding with Iran. The analysis concludes that, in the meantime, Washington is continuing to strengthen its public case regarding Cuba while expanding political and strategic pressure on Havana.
