Sławomir Mentzen, the far-right candidate from Poland’s Confederation party, has surged ahead of his conservative rival in the race for the presidency, marking a significant shift in the country’s political landscape. Polling at nearly 19% for the first time, Mentzen has overtaken Karol Nawrocki of the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, a longtime ally of the US Republicans.
Mentzen has embraced Donald Trump’s brand of populism, telling supporters in Bełchatów that his campaign represents a “revolution of common sense” inspired by the US president. His rise comes at a moment of growing uncertainty for PiS, which has long relied on strong transatlantic ties but now faces challenges as Trump flirts with a more isolationist foreign policy.
The upcoming visit of Trump to Poland next month—just weeks before the presidential election—could complicate the PiS candidate’s chances rather than boost them. While Poland has spent nearly 5% of its GDP on military defense, Trump’s recent rhetoric about weakening NATO security guarantees has left voters uneasy.
At 38, Mentzen has worked to moderate his past inflammatory positions—such as jailing women for abortion and advocating for Poland’s exit from the EU—while focusing on his economic credentials. His rally in Bełchatów, a coal town facing job losses due to EU climate policies, combined nationalist rhetoric with promises of tax cuts and deregulation.
Confederation’s rise has unsettled Poland’s political establishment. Critics warn that behind Mentzen’s economic messaging, the party harbors extremist figures like Grzegorz Braun, known for his history of anti-LGBTQ+ actions and antisemitic stunts. Meanwhile, centrist candidate Rafał Trzaskowski, the frontrunner, has warned that Confederation’s radical elements are being deliberately downplayed in an effort to broaden its appeal.
