The local government (LG) election was scheduled to be held in February 2022. At the time, Ranil, who had entered Parliament via the national list, believed that if the LG election went ahead, the UNP would disappear, and Sajith along with the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) would grow even stronger. To prevent this, he offered a political bribe to the SLPP government. The SLPP, too, feared that if it proceeded with the LG election, the vote base of 6.9 million they had secured in the 2019 presidential and 2020 general elections would collapse, paving the way for Sajith to strengthen his path to winning the next presidential election.
In reality, if the LG election had been held then, the SLPP was expected to win a majority of local government institutions. At that time, there were no fuel or gas shortages. Sajith and the SJB were also in a strong position to compete alongside the SLPP in the by-election. No one was seriously discussing the JVP then; they were expected to receive the usual 3% of the vote. If the SLPP had lost some votes but still won a majority in local councils, there would never have been an aragalaya (people’s protest) in Sri Lanka. Gota’s government would have had the political strength to suppress any unrest due to its parliamentary majority.
However, the SLPP government, disregarding all this, postponed the local election after swallowing Ranil’s bait to block Sajith’s rise and politically eliminate him. At the time, the JVP was afraid of elections and remained silent.
When the protests began and Mahinda Rajapaksa was forced to resign as Prime Minister, Gota invited Sajith to take over the role. Sajith did not reject the offer but presented several conditions:
- Abolition of the executive presidency
- Gota’s resignation at a specified time
- Holding a general election
- Authority for Sajith to appoint the cabinet and form an all-party government
The SLPP rejected these conditions. The Rajapaksa family had no intention of making Sajith Prime Minister. While Eran Wickramaratne and other SJB MPs were discussing Sajith’s conditions in one room at the Presidential Secretariat, Ranil was kept in another room, ready to be sworn in as Prime Minister under the influence of the Rajapaksa family. In Gota’s memoir, written after leaving the presidency, he clearly states that Sajith did not decline the offer, but instead put forward conditions.
Had Gota accepted Sajith’s terms and made him Prime Minister, followed by a general election, the SJB might have won a majority of seats, though securing 113 would have been difficult. A fierce political battle would have emerged between the SLPP and the JVP for the opposition, with the SLPP likely becoming the main opposition and the JVP securing around 20 seats. Even during the aragalaya, the JVP had not significantly increased its support. Initially, Anura and the JVP did not support the protest. Anura had issued a statement advising people not to join the aragalaya without party leadership approval. On the day Sajith was attacked at the protest site, Anura arrived secretly and quickly left. The JVP only gained prominence when Ranil sought to become President using the votes of the SLFP—a party they previously labelled “bank robbers”—to block the SJB.
“They are all lying and killing each other…”
The people began to support the JVP because of this sentiment.
When Gotabaya fled the country in fear of the aragalaya, the Speaker convened an all-party meeting with the tri-forces commanders and the IGP, passing a resolution that both Gotabaya and Prime Minister Ranil should resign immediately. Instead, Ranil stirred the Rajapaksa family and the SLFP and got himself appointed as Acting President. Had this not happened, the Speaker would have become President, and Sajith would have become Prime Minister. An all-party government would have been formed. If such a government had then gone to a general election, the SLPP would have become the opposition, the JVP would have come third, and Sajith, as Prime Minister, would likely have secured a majority—even if not the full 113 seats. In such a case, there would have been no presidential election, as the executive presidency would have been abolished.
Ranil was defeated by Sajith and the SJB. But all Sri Lankan media spread the narrative that Ranil would split the SJB and form a coalition government. This was the turning point for the JVP’s rise. Ranil and the UPFA effectively boosted Anura and the JVP by undermining Sajith. In a now infamous moment, Independent Television aired a one-sided debate where Anura spoke to an empty chair meant for Sajith, portraying Sajith as afraid to face Anura.
Today, Ranil’s supporters claim we must “protect the right bank” and frame the next presidential election as a battle between Anura on the left and Ranil on the right, writing off Sajith’s political future. Ironically, Ranil’s camp is now promoting Anura.
But had the LG election scheduled for 2023 been held, the SJB would have won. By that time, the JVP had become a stronger force, likely coming in second, with the SLFP also securing a significant number of local councils. Even then, Ranil and the SLFP conspired to deny Sajith a sufficient number of votes to become president.
If Ranil had failed to break the SLPP in the 2024 presidential election, he would not have been able to run. In such a case, Ranil would have had to withdraw, and Sajith would have had a clear path to victory. A united SLPP presenting a common candidate might have absorbed Anura’s votes, but Sajith would have drawn the minority vote. Former UNP MPs, now politically orphaned, could have rallied behind Sajith, returned to Parliament, and secured ministerial positions. Even if the SLPP lost the presidency, it could have retained a significant number of MPs.
Eventually, Basil Rajapaksa realised that the game he and Ranil were playing to destroy Sajith was instead benefiting the JVP. Fearing a JVP surge among SLPP voters, he pressured Ranil to call a general election. If that election had been held, Sajith might have won by at least one additional seat. The JVP would not have gained much in a general election, even though Anura polled 42% in the presidential race. Had a general election occurred first, Ranil would have had to align with the SLPP. If they ran as a united government, the SLPP could have won a respectable number of seats—but only if Ranil had made Mahinda the Prime Minister and joined the election campaign with the SLPP.
When you tally all of this, it becomes clear that Anura won not because of his own merits, but due to Ranil’s and the SLPP’s hatred of Sajith. Even now, some are spreading the narrative that Namal is ahead of Sajith. Even JVP ideologues are amplifying this message to marginalise Sajith and bolster Anura’s presidency. But if you hate Sajith, it’s not Sajith who will be destroyed—it is the JVP that will be empowered.
I don’t know if the former ministers who once slandered Sajith and his family will dream of Jumper tonight and say, “Sajith must be stopped.” But as the saying goes:
“If the fish swallows the wrong fish, it’s the cat that suffers.”
