In a chilling illustration of how technology and finance intersect with global conflict, journalists reporting on the Iran war are facing threats linked to online prediction markets. Emanuel Fabian, a defense reporter for the Times of Israel, discovered this when he covered an Iranian missile strike near a Jerusalem suburb on March 10. Although the missile caused no injuries or damage, Fabian soon received menacing messages on social media and his phone, warning him to alter his reporting. Some messages explicitly threatened his life, family, and professional reputation.
Fabian told The Times that he initially considered whether the messages came from Iranian intelligence or from “weirdos” betting on Polymarket, a rapidly growing online platform where users wager on the outcomes of events ranging from politics to conflicts. Polymarket allows bets on occurrences like missile impacts, the death of world leaders, or even Nobel Prize winners, sometimes involving hundreds of thousands of dollars. One account, known as “Magamyman,” reportedly made more than half a million dollars betting on the ousting of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei shortly before his assassination.
These platforms raise ethical and security concerns, particularly when insider knowledge intersects with high-stakes gambling. Fabian pointed to a case in which an Israeli reservist and a civilian were indicted for using classified information to place bets on Polymarket. “It’s very dangerous territory with these bets,” Fabian told The Times, noting that confidential information could be leveraged for financial gain, creating conflicts between reporting and personal risk.
The messages Fabian received included short deadlines to change articles, reflecting an alarming fusion of online betting pressure and real-world intimidation. Some threats were in Hebrew, others in English, and they indicated that users heavily involved in Polymarket were closely monitoring his reporting. Fabian reported the harassment to Israeli authorities, concerned about ongoing threats. “I feel now that with every report I put out, I’m wondering what Polymarket bet is going to start using it for bets — and then they’re going to come and pressure me again,” he said.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and its rivals have also made headlines for political wagers. An anonymous user won $400,000 betting on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, while other bets have targeted global conflicts and high-profile political figures. During the U.S. military build-up around Iran, roughly half a billion dollars were reportedly traded on Polymarket predicting the timing of attacks. Though the White House denied any insider involvement, investor connections between figures such as Donald Trump Jr. and the platform have drawn scrutiny. Two investigations into the site were dropped, and it recently gained regulatory approval to operate in the United States.
While Polymarket condemned harassment against Fabian, emphasizing that such behavior violates its terms of service, critics say the platforms profit from war and death, and expose both journalists and the public to manipulation. The U.S. explicitly forbids trades based directly on war and fatalities, requiring payouts to be refunded in cases like the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, rather than awarding winnings linked to lethal outcomes.
Fabian warned of the dangerous precedent such platforms create. “Betting on wars and on things that actually affect people’s lives is really gross,” he said. “It could be used for really bad things as well. If you place a bet on whether or not someone gets killed, and then someone goes and kills them to win the prize… it could get to those sort of extremes.” His concern reflects a growing debate about how prediction markets intersect with ethics, security, and the manipulation of real-world events.
The risks are not merely theoretical. Following the assassination of Iranian officials, including Ali Larijani, markets briefly offered bets on who would succeed as supreme leader. Similar wagers even targeted Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, with potential payouts reaching $4 million. Such scenarios illustrate how prediction markets are increasingly entwined with global conflict, placing journalists and civilians in the crosshairs of both digital and real-world consequences.
As The Times reports, the rise of high-stakes, real-world prediction markets underscores a disturbing convergence of gambling, geopolitics, and personal risk. Journalists covering conflicts are no longer reporting in isolation; their work can directly influence or become influenced by global wagers, creating an environment where information, money, and threats intersect with potentially lethal consequences.
