Saudi Arabia is confronting a worsening security crisis after Houthi forces seized key positions along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and resumed missile and drone attacks against Saudi infrastructure, while the network of alliances Riyadh built over decades has failed to produce a direct military coalition in its defence. The Soufan Center, which provided the assessment, says Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, has responded militarily but may ultimately have to seek a negotiated settlement if the Kingdom cannot reverse the Houthi gains.
Saudi Arabia’s security policy has long rested on three elements: a strategic security relationship with the United States, regional defence partnerships and concessions intended to reduce conflict with Iran and Tehran’s regional allies. Riyadh’s March 2023 China-brokered détente with Iran was part of that effort. The calculation was that Saudi Arabia could reduce tensions with Tehran while retaining its security partnerships, particularly with Washington, should the agreement fail to prevent confrontation.
The current crisis has challenged that assumption. According to The Soufan Center, MBS is frustrated that the Trump administration has reached a strategic impasse in its conflict with Iran, while the United States has so far declined to intervene directly against the Houthis. The resulting situation has left Riyadh facing attacks by the Houthi movement, also known as Ansarallah, while trying to develop a security structure less dependent on Washington. The Soufan Center argues that such a longer-term restructuring cannot by itself address the immediate threat created by the Houthi advance.
The Houthis last week captured ports and positions along the Red Sea coast while continuing missile and drone attacks that temporarily shut down the vital East-West oil pipeline, according to The Soufan Center. The advances have raised concern among some experts that the group could extend its control further into southern Yemen, potentially consolidating a large sovereign Yemeni state aligned with Iran on Saudi Arabia’s border.
US President Donald Trump has rejected MBS’s calls for direct American intervention, arguing that the Houthis have pledged not to attack US interests and that Washington should avoid expanding its military operations in the region. Michael Ratney, who served as US ambassador to Saudi Arabia from 2023 until January 2025, told the Washington Post that Riyadh had “invested decades into its military partnership with the U.S. for just this kind of moment … Now the moment has come, and the U.S. is not stepping up.” Ratney said the crisis was largely a consequence of the US decision to attack Iran, while acknowledging that the Houthi offensive is primarily directed at Saudi efforts to contain the movement.
Washington has nevertheless provided some military assistance. US Central Command has increased personnel at its intelligence and operations centre in Saudi Arabia, where a few hundred US personnel are stationed, to assist Saudi forces in targeting Houthi positions. US officials have also cleared the sale of up to 48 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters to Saudi Arabia. The aircraft would not be delivered for several years and remain subject to congressional review, while US military and congressional officials have expressed concern that China could gain access to the aircraft in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia, facing a shortage of missile interceptors and recognising that US munitions stocks have been depleted by the Iran war, is also seeking air-defence assistance from France, Britain, Pakistan and Egypt.
Riyadh’s newer regional security arrangements have produced a similar limitation. The August Mecca Agreement with Türkiye and Pakistan contains a binding mutual-defence commitment resembling Article 5 of the NATO Charter and expanded an existing Saudi-Pakistani defence pact. Yet Türkiye, Pakistan and Egypt have declined to intervene militarily in Yemen. Regional governments appear concerned that direct involvement could expose them to retaliation from Iran and Iran-aligned groups. Pakistan has argued that the Yemen conflict is “pre-existing” and therefore falls outside the agreement’s defence obligations, although Islamabad reconsidered its position after Saudi Arabia said the Houthis had launched a drone attack on Mecca. Pakistan’s Army spokesperson said: “We are present in Saudi Arabia; and we are ready to go to any extent required by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.” The Houthis denied attacking Mecca, while senior Houthi official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti warned Pakistan and Türkiye: “We will strike them with an iron fist” if they intervened.
Saudi Arabia has also declined direct military assistance from Israel, despite reports that Saudi officials have quietly consulted Israeli military officers about their previous operations against Houthi targets. Riyadh is concerned that open cooperation with Israel could provoke domestic unrest and increase US pressure for Saudi-Israeli normalisation. A Saudi source told Israel’s Kan radio that the crisis would not change Riyadh’s position, saying: “The assumption that … Riyadh will be flexible on the matter of normalization with Jerusalem is mistaken.” The source said Saudi Arabia continued to demand an “irreversible pathway” towards Palestinian statehood before normalisation.
For now, Saudi forces are attempting to halt the Houthi advance. The Saudi Air Force has struck Houthi command centres and positions, including in Sana’a, while Saudi-backed forces and units including the Giants Brigade have been deployed against Houthi ground forces. Riyadh is seeking to prevent further advances towards Aden, Marib and Taiz, although The Soufan Center says there is no indication that Saudi-backed forces can retake the territory already lost along the Red Sea coast. Saudi officials also said on Saturday that the Houthis attempted to attack Riyadh with a ballistic missile, which was intercepted.
If the military response cannot reverse the territorial gains, The Soufan Center says MBS is likely to return to negotiations, potentially accepting substantial concessions. Houthi demands include an end to the Saudi blockade, increased funding for government workers in Houthi-controlled territory and a guaranteed share of Yemen’s oil revenues. The movement could also seek Saudi recognition of its leadership of the Yemeni state and an end to Riyadh’s support for the President Leadership Council. Saudi Arabia is expected to seek assistance from Pakistan, Oman and China in pressing the Houthis towards an agreement, although the group’s role in Iran’s war effort against the United States and its ideological commitments could complicate any settlement.
