Europe is heading into a year of elections in which Finland, France, Greece, Italy, Poland, Slovakia and Spain will hold presidential or parliamentary contests. The elections involve many of the European Union’s most influential members and come amid internal political turbulence and tensions involving Russia and the United States. Far-right parties are expected to perform strongly across much of the continent, while the established centre-left and centre-right parties are struggling to respond to voters moving towards more radical positions. Turnout, meanwhile, is generally increasing.
Germany has provided the immediate warning. Chancellor Friedrich Merz survived three defeats for his Christian Democrats but described the latest result as a catastrophe for Germany. The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) continues to gain support, having moved further towards the extreme right and attracted voters who had previously abandoned the ballot box. Its policies include excluding children without permanent residency from regular schools, establishing citizen patrols and developing closer economic ties with Russia. The Left party is set to run Berlin, while Merz has six months without further regional elections to work with his Social Democratic coalition partners on reforms and economic growth.
The coming contests are unlikely to produce a uniform result. Populist parties, most often on the right, will not necessarily take power outright and may not enter government at all. But the source argues that they are increasingly setting the terms of political debate, assisted by social-media activity attributed to the Kremlin and by Donald Trump’s Maga movement. France will provide one of the most closely watched tests. Two rounds of voting in April and May will determine whether Marine Le Pen can become president. Polls currently place her National Rally clearly ahead in first-round voting intentions, although political scientists caution that the electoral cycle means polling will only begin to indicate a clearer direction towards the new year.
France’s political centre remains divided over how to respond. If the middle-ground parties fail to unite behind a convincing candidate, the fragmentation could also open a route into the run-off for Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The consequences of a Le Pen victory are disputed. One view is that it could severely damage Nato and EU cohesion, citing Viktor Orban’s record in Hungary, where repeated opposition to or qualification of Nato support for Ukraine complicated efforts to maintain a united position towards Russia. Another possibility is that Le Pen would continue the National Rally’s “de-demonising” strategy, abandoning earlier calls to leave the EU and distancing the party from the Kremlin, following the more pragmatic course associated with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni.
Italy, however, is already showing the pressure further to the right. Meloni’s government faces a challenge from the newly launched National Future party, led by General Roberto Vannacci. The party is attracting defectors from the governing coalition and is polling at about 8 per cent, making it Italy’s fourth-largest political force. Vannacci’s platform includes “remigration”, meaning the forced return of immigrants, restrictions on foreign residents, allowing 14-year-olds to enter the workforce and salaries for stay-at-home mothers. Meloni has responded with proposals including bans on burqas and niqabs in schools and limits on foreign students in classes.
Spain presents a different political direction. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has opposed Donald Trump, defended immigration and positioned himself prominently among European socialists. Yet four recent regional elections produced poor results for his PSOE, including in former strongholds such as Andalusia and Extremadura. The conservative PP performed comparatively well and the far-right Vox has become a kingmaker. Spain must hold elections by next August, while Sánchez’s previous parliamentary survival depended on fragile agreements with Sumar and Basque and Catalan separatist parties. A recent poll cited in the source puts the far-right separatist Catalan Alliance above 15 per cent.
The broader shift is also visible in public attitudes. A 2025 study found that 41 per cent of respondents across 10 European countries agreed that there is a group “trying to replace the native-born population with immigrants”, with 17.5 per cent strongly agreeing. In Portugal, where the far-right Chega was defeated in this year’s presidential election, the unregistered Reconquista movement has already exceeded 5 per cent and campaigns around “population replacement” and remigration. Its leader, Afonso Gonçalves, described Germany’s results as “proof that nationalist and identitarian policies are exactly the kind of policy we need to win elections and save our countries”.
Poland will provide another major test next autumn, particularly over Russia and Ukraine. The country has had two centres of power since late 2023, with Donald Tusk leading the government and the far-right Karol Nawrocki holding the presidency. The source argues that electoral arithmetic could enable right-wing and far-right parties to cooperate more effectively than mainstream forces, potentially restoring the Law and Justice party and bringing a return to national-conservative policies and reduced cooperation with Ukraine. The consequences would extend beyond Poland, as Robert Fico in Slovakia and newly elected Czech prime minister Andrej Babiš could sharpen their nationalist positions.
