Argentina’s libertarian President Javier Milei continues to benefit from a fragmented opposition, with fewer than a third of voters able to identify a viable rival nearly two years into his presidency, according to recent research shared with the Financial Times by local pollster Pulso.
The August survey, which asked respondents to name the leader of the opposition, found that 43.8% said there was none or that they did not know. Leftist former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who was banned from politics for life in June and placed under house arrest following a corruption conviction, was identified by 25.2% of respondents. Axel Kicillof, governor of Buenos Aires province and a key Peronist figure, received 9.8%, while conservative ex-President Mauricio Macri garnered just 2.8%.
“Argentine politics, which for years revolved around a battle between Kirchner and Macri, is now Milei versus the anti-Milei,” said Eugenia Mitchelstein, a politics professor at Buenos Aires’ San Andrés University. “There may be many anti-Milei, but none of them is the boss.”
Milei, a former TV economics commentator, shocked Argentina’s establishment with his 2023 outsider victory. Despite holding a tiny congressional minority, he has pushed through significant parts of his agenda, bolstering his prospects for both October’s midterm elections and the 2027 presidential vote.
“All political parties have destroyed this country, which should be a world power,” said Matias Rino, a Buenos Aires security guard who spoiled his ballot in 2023 but is now considering voting for Milei. “At least inflation is going down like he promised. And there’s no one else.”
Peronism, the populist movement that has dominated Argentine politics since the 1940s, has struggled to unify behind a clear message after Sergio Massa lost the presidency to Milei. Kirchner’s June Supreme Court-backed ban has further complicated the party’s leadership, leaving a vacuum that Kicillof and other potential successors have been unable to fill.
Analysts note that while Kirchner remains influential from house arrest, her ban and her allies’ mixed support have weakened Peronism’s coherence. Other opposition factions are similarly fractured: the centre-right coalition Juntos Por el Cambio splintered after the 2023 election, and conservative voters have increasingly gravitated toward Milei’s Libertarian La Libertad Avanza (LLA) party.
Despite his advantages, Milei faces potential challenges. Recent congressional defeats on social spending bills and growing frustration among provincial governors over budget cuts suggest that political obstacles remain. Economists also caution that Milei’s reliance on borrowing to bolster foreign currency reserves could trigger a sudden peso devaluation, threatening his inflation-fighting record.
“His government will probably suffer some erosion of popularity in the next few years,” said political analyst Sergio Berensztein. “But in the absence of a big macroeconomic event, the opposition’s electoral chances look quite limited.”
Polls suggest that LLA, founded in 2021, could significantly expand its congressional presence in October, securing around a third of seats and further consolidating Milei’s political advantage. The opposition’s ability to mount a credible challenge ahead of 2027 may depend heavily on economic performance in the second half of Milei’s term.
