Vote counting has begun in Bihar, India’s poorest yet politically pivotal state, in an election seen as a barometer of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity after a year marked by economic and foreign policy setbacks. Exit polls following Tuesday’s final phase of voting project that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, in alliance with the regional Janata Dal (United), will retain control of the 243-seat assembly.
While these projections are not definitive, a win in Bihar would help Modi reassert authority after a turbulent year that included a four-day armed conflict with Pakistan and a deterioration in US-India trade relations, which has weighed on economic growth. The stakes are particularly high after a deadly terror attack in the capital on Monday, which has further tested public confidence in the government. Political analysts, including Arati Jerath of New Delhi, have highlighted that a victory would allow Modi to “do some damage control” for his dented image.
The election has also been overshadowed by opposition claims of voter fraud. Congress Party leader Rahul Gandhi has repeatedly accused Modi’s ruling party of manipulating votes, alleging that a single photograph was reused to register multiple fake voters in last year’s provincial elections in Haryana. Gandhi has claimed, via posts on X, that the BJP is colluding with the Election Commission of India to undermine democracy, allegations that both the ruling party and the election body have denied.
Despite Bihar’s economic challenges, the state wields outsized influence in national politics, with a population of 127 million—roughly equivalent to Mexico—and controlling 40 of the 543 seats in India’s lower house of parliament. Modi’s BJP has allied with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) party, leveraging social welfare initiatives and infrastructure projects to appeal to voters. The opposition, led by Gandhi and regional leader Tejashwi Yadav, has focused on slow job creation, Modi’s handling of the Pakistan conflict, and stalled US trade negotiations.
Observers caution that Bihar’s outcome could have broader ramifications. Richard Rossow, senior adviser at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that Modi is “pretty vulnerable” and could “lose some momentum” in legislative policy-making if his coalition fails to secure the state. Analysts view the election as a critical test of whether Modi can maintain his grip on power amid a challenging domestic and international landscape.
