In a pivotal German election held on Sunday, preliminary exit polls indicate that the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has secured a plurality in the Bundestag, positioning Friedrich Merz to likely succeed Chancellor Olaf Scholz. While the CDU is on track to form the next government, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has surged to second place, marking a historic shift in Germany’s political landscape.
More than 59 million Germans were eligible to vote, following the collapse of Scholz’s center-left government in November. The main issues driving the election were economic stagnation, deficient infrastructure, and migration, with the AfD gaining significant traction by capitalizing on widespread discontent about immigration and the economy.
Merz, the CDU leader since 2021, has shifted the party further to the right, particularly on migration, and is likely to head a coalition government. Despite the CDU’s triumph, the far-right AfD’s strong showing, likely its best-ever federal result, has sparked concern. With its anti-immigration rhetoric, the AfD has captured the attention of voters dissatisfied with traditional parties, but it remains excluded from any coalition due to a long-standing refusal by other parties to work with it.
While protests against the far-right have been widespread in the lead-up to the election, AfD leaders such as Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla saw their party finish in a strong second place, fueled by voter concerns about the economy, migration, and political dissatisfaction. The AfD, however, faces isolation in Germany’s political system, with all other parties ruling out cooperation.
The final results suggest a major shift in the Bundestag, with the Social Democrats (SPD) led by Scholz languishing in third place, and the Greens, the SPD’s former coalition partners, in fourth. Following the election, the CDU will likely form a coalition government, either with the SPD in a “Grand Coalition” or the Greens in a “Black-Green” arrangement.
