The U.S. Intelligence Community has refused to declassify a pivotal 2008 report assessing climate change as a national security threat, despite growing concerns over its relevance in today’s rapidly evolving climate landscape. The National Intelligence Assessment (NIA) on the “National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030,” produced by the National Intelligence Council (NIC), remains classified at the “Confidential” level—the lowest tier of national security secrecy—raising questions about the rationale for its continued restriction.
The National Security Archive, a nonprofit research institute advocating for transparency, has renewed its call for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) to release the report. In 2022, the organization filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request to obtain the document, followed by an official letter in December 2024. However, no response has been received.
A Longstanding Intelligence Focus on Climate Change
The Intelligence Community (IC) has monitored climate change for decades, but its focus on climate as a national security issue gained momentum in the early 1990s. Reports such as the 1990 United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment and the 2003 Pentagon-commissioned study, “An Abrupt Climate Scenario and Its Implications for U.S. National Security,” underscored climate change as a critical security concern.
By 2007, the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) Military Advisory Board had coined the term “Threat Multiplier” in its landmark report on climate and national security. This prompted growing bipartisan interest in Congress, leading to the commissioning of the 2008 NIA by the NIC. The report was expected to serve as a foundational intelligence product, informing policymakers on how climate change could exacerbate global instability.
Secrecy vs. Public Interest: The Debate Over Declassification
Despite the report’s reliance on publicly available data, including the 2007 Fourth IPCC Assessment, the NIC has consistently maintained its classified status. Dr. Thomas Fingar, the lead author of the 2008 NIA and former Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis, testified before Congress in 2008, summarizing its key findings: climate change would exacerbate poverty, social tensions, and political instability worldwide, while also impacting U.S. economic and military interests.
During a December 2024 National Security Archive interview, Fingar defended the NIC’s decision, arguing that declassification could trigger diplomatic and financial consequences. He explained that naming specific countries vulnerable to climate change might lead to premature requests for U.S. aid and “cause embarrassment” to those nations. However, his position has been met with skepticism from transparency advocates and former intelligence officials.
Dr. Rod Schoonover, a former State Department intelligence official and current head of the Ecological Security Program at the Council on Strategic Risks, argues that the rationale for secrecy is weak. He pointed out that more recent intelligence reports—such as the 2021 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released during the Biden administration—have already named vulnerable nations, including Afghanistan, Haiti, and North Korea.
“The 2008 report is far superior to the 2021 estimate in its depth and clarity,” Schoonover said in the December 2024 interview. He criticized the 2021 NIE for downplaying risks to the U.S., noting that warnings about domestic climate threats were “buried on the last page” of the report.
A Pattern of Censorship in Climate Intelligence
The continued classification of the 2008 NIA is part of a broader pattern of resistance to transparency in climate intelligence. Under the Trump administration, Schoonover himself faced censorship when the White House attempted to block his 2019 Senate testimony on climate security. The administration refused to enter his written testimony into the Congressional Record, leading to his resignation.
The reluctance to declassify climate intelligence is not just a Trump-era phenomenon. Both Democratic and Republican lawmakers have raised concerns about intelligence agencies withholding critical information that could aid U.S. businesses, local governments, and policymakers in climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.
Why Declassification Matters
The National Security Archive argues that releasing the 2008 NIA would provide crucial historical insight into how the U.S. Intelligence Community has assessed climate risks over time. This transparency is vital, especially as climate change accelerates and new geopolitical challenges emerge.
Furthermore, the classification status of “Confidential” suggests that the report does not contain sensitive intelligence sources or methods, reinforcing arguments that its continued secrecy is unnecessary. Advocates believe declassification would help the public and policymakers better understand climate risks and national security strategies.
What Happens Next?
With no response to the 2022 FOIA request or the December 2024 letter, pressure is mounting on the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) to release the report. If declassification efforts fail, transparency advocates may pursue legal action to compel disclosure.
As climate change continues to reshape global security landscapes, the push for intelligence transparency grows more urgent. The fate of the 2008 National Intelligence Assessment remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the public deserves access to the information that shapes national security decisions affecting their future.
