Western air superiority in the Pacific may no longer be assured as China rapidly expands its military capabilities, according to a new report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). The study describes Beijing’s development of stealth jets and long-range precision missiles over the past five years as “astonishing,” suggesting the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) can now strike US ships and air bases from distances of 1,000 kilometers or more.
China is producing fifth-generation J-20A stealth fighters at a rate of 120 per year—more than double the US Air Force’s annual F-35 purchases. The PLA is also acquiring approximately 100 J-16 fighters annually. Its missile technology, including the PL-15 and PL-17 air-to-air missiles, boasts ranges that exceed comparable systems from the US, Russia, or Europe, as demonstrated in the recent India-Pakistan conflict.
“The PLA now fields a range of capabilities that can threaten US aerial refueling tankers, navy carrier groups, and forward air bases at 1,000 km or more,” the report said, citing thousands of long-range ground-based, air-launched, and maritime ballistic and cruise missiles, alongside hundreds of advanced fighters equipped with long-range air-to-air weapons.
China’s military modernization, a key policy under President Xi Jinping, has transformed the PLA from a force relying on sheer numbers to a technologically advanced power. Its navy now exceeds the US in total warships, though China operates only three carriers compared with America’s eleven. Analysts highlight the western assumption of automatic air superiority over Taiwan as increasingly risky given the PLA’s home-field advantage, integrated missile networks, and growing operational experience.
Justin Bronk, author of the RUSI report, warned that while US-led forces may achieve temporary, localized superiority, China’s rapid progress means the traditional Western edge in airpower “is no longer guaranteed.” This shift could have profound implications for the defense of Taiwan and broader strategic stability in the western Pacific.
