Defense analysts are urging a rapid overhaul of Taiwan’s unmanned systems strategy and naval force structure, warning that delays in standardization and fleet expansion could undermine the island’s ability to deter escalating regional threats. Security expert Shu Hsiao-huang has called for a more transparent drone development framework, while shipbuilder leadership has highlighted a critical shortfall in submarine capacity needed for modern undersea warfare.
Shu Hsiao-huang warned that recent conflicts, including the Ukraine-Russia war and wider Middle East drone warfare, demonstrate how long-range unmanned systems are reshaping modern battlefields. He pointed to how Ukrainian drone operations have severely disrupted Russian air capabilities and how Iranian drones have struck hundreds of targets, illustrating the growing strategic value of low-cost, long-range strike platforms. According to Shu, such systems can be used not only for reconnaissance but also for one-way swarm attacks designed to exhaust enemy air defenses and deplete missile stockpiles.
He argued that Taiwan’s defense establishment, including the Ministry of National Defense, must prioritize long-range strike capabilities capable of targeting enemy airfields, ports and logistical hubs to disrupt invasion preparations. Shu also urged the CSIST to release drone specifications to civilian manufacturers, enabling mass production and lowering costs through industrial scaling. He further stressed the need for an annual procurement budget to sustain continuous orders, arguing that consistent demand would drive innovation and modernization in Taiwan’s domestic drone industry.
Shu warned that the rapid evolution of drone warfare requires a clearly defined doctrine separating micro, small and long-range platforms by mission role. He also raised concerns that Taiwan has yet to fully develop contingency plans against low-altitude drone incursions or clarify targeting systems for advanced artillery and missile platforms. He cautioned that the People’s Liberation Army is rapidly advancing drone swarm tactics and already maintains a far larger unmanned fleet, potentially forcing Taiwan’s air defenses into unsustainable missile expenditure during sustained engagements.
In parallel, Taiwan’s submarine modernization efforts are facing their own strategic pressure points. Chen Cheng-hung, chairman of CSBC Corporation Taiwan, said Taiwan would require at least 12 submarines to achieve a modern and credible undersea force, citing external assessments. He noted that Taiwan’s current fleet remains limited and partly reliant on aging platforms, with some vessels dating back to World War II-era designs that are now approaching retirement.
Chen highlighted ongoing progress in Taiwan’s indigenous submarine program, including the Hai Kun, which has completed torpedo tests and is preparing for further sea trials ahead of planned delivery to the navy. He confirmed that Taiwan’s phased production plan aims to expand the fleet gradually, but emphasized that legislative budget constraints could slow procurement timelines. He also noted that submarine design adjustments will likely be needed between production batches due to differences in components sourced internationally.
Strategically, Chen emphasized Taiwan’s geographic importance along major maritime routes and the need for submarine “ambush zones” to counter blockade scenarios or landing operations. He said multiple deployment zones around northern, southern, and eastern Taiwan would require several submarines operating simultaneously, reinforcing the argument that total fleet size must be significantly larger than the number deployed at any given time. Without such expansion, analysts warn that Taiwan risks falling behind regional submarine powers and losing critical undersea deterrence capacity at a time of increasing military pressure across the Taiwan Strait.
