Europe faces an unprecedented combination of economic, military and political challenges, according to British historian and journalist Timothy Garton Ash, who warns that the continent must strengthen its unity and reduce its dependence on external powers if it is to protect its future. In an interview published by El País, the Oxford academic identifies China as Europe’s principal economic challenge, Russia as its military threat and the United States as an increasingly unpredictable political force.
Garton Ash, 71, who received the 2026 Princess of Asturias Award for Social Sciences in recognition of his commitment to freedom and the unity and strength of the European project, believes the European Union is confronting these pressures at a particularly vulnerable moment. Internal divisions, the rise of nationalist movements and global challenges such as climate change and artificial intelligence are complicating its response, he argues.
Speaking at Exeter College, Oxford, where his enthusiasm for European integration first developed in the 1970s, Garton Ash reflects on how dramatically Britain’s relationship with Europe has changed. When the United Kingdom joined the European Economic Community, the European project represented the future for many British observers. Conservative politicians were among its strongest advocates, partly because their experience of the Second World War had convinced them that European cooperation was essential to preventing another continental catastrophe.
Five decades later, the political landscape has been transformed. Conservatives have become increasingly Eurosceptic, while Labour and the Liberal Democrats are more closely associated with support for European integration. For Garton Ash, Brexit represented the loss of more than economic advantages: Britain also relinquished its ability to help balance power and influence within European institutions.
He believes the United Kingdom should ultimately seek to rejoin the European Union if a majority of British citizens and the Union itself support the move. Welcoming recent political discussion about Brexit’s failures, he argues that public opinion has moved ahead of political leaders in reconsidering the decision. However, he acknowledges that achieving renewed membership would be politically difficult on both sides of the English Channel.
Garton Ash maintains that Britain brought particular strengths to European cooperation, including institutional competence and a longstanding commitment to liberty. He argues that the partnership between Britain, France and Germany once helped maintain a balance within the Union, suggesting that Britain’s departure may also have contributed to the deterioration of the Franco-German relationship.
His concerns extend well beyond the consequences of Brexit. Russia’s war against Ukraine, he argues, has made European security inseparable from Ukraine’s future. He strongly supports continued military, political and economic assistance to Kyiv, insisting that Europe’s own security depends on it. Russian hybrid warfare, he says, seeks to undermine European unity over Ukraine and weaken the continent’s collective response.
At the same time, Garton Ash believes Europe can no longer assume that the United States will provide the security guarantees on which it has historically relied. Although European leaders have sought to preserve Washington’s commitment to the continent, he warns that the relationship has fundamentally changed and may remain uncertain beyond Donald Trump’s presidency.
He is particularly concerned about American political support for nationalist, populist and anti-liberal movements in Europe. He points to parties including Spain’s Vox, Britain’s Reform UK, France’s National Rally and Germany’s Alternative for Germany as examples of political forces challenging the European project. In his assessment, such developments compound the strategic pressures created by Russia and China.
Immigration presents another major test. Garton Ash argues that public anxiety often reflects not simply the number of new arrivals but the cultural, social and demographic changes Europe has experienced over several decades. Irregular migration can intensify perceptions that governments have lost control, while ageing populations, extensive welfare systems and sluggish economic growth make immigration increasingly necessary.
“Necesitamos la inmigración, no nos queda más remedio que lograr que sea un éxito,” he says, arguing that Europe has little choice but to make immigration successful. The challenge, in his view, is to acknowledge public concerns without ignoring the continent’s economic and demographic realities.
His latest book, Europe in Seven Chapters and a Half, seeks to remind younger generations that the achievements secured since 1945 cannot be taken for granted. European peace, prosperity and cooperation, he argues, could be dismantled much more quickly than many citizens imagine.
Garton Ash concludes that a stronger Europe requires more than agreements among governments. Leaders must defend European cooperation within their own countries, particularly in areas such as defence, capital markets and artificial intelligence, where coordinated European policies are increasingly necessary. Citizens, too, must recognise their responsibility for the continent’s direction.
Despite his concerns, the historian remains hopeful that Europe can overcome its divisions. Drawing on the Italian intellectual Antonio Gramsci, he repeatedly returns to the principle of “pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will”: a clear-eyed recognition of the dangers confronting Europe, combined with a determination to preserve the political project that has shaped its modern history.
