Germany, Austria, and Estonia have become the latest EU member states to report “ultra-low” fertility rates, highlighting the growing demographic challenges facing the continent. Official statistics reveal that Germany’s birth rate dropped to 1.35 children per woman in 2023, falling below the United Nations’ threshold of 1.4, which marks a situation where declining birth rates become increasingly difficult to reverse.
These new figures place Germany, the EU’s most populous country, alongside nine other European nations, including Spain, Greece, and Italy, which already had fertility rates below 1.4 children per woman in 2022. Austria’s rate fell to 1.32 children per woman in 2023, down from 1.41 the previous year, while Estonia saw its rate decline to 1.31 from 1.41. As reported by the Financial Times, this marks a worrying trend across the region.
Experts point to the growing trend of delayed parenthood, with many individuals postponing having children until their 30s. Willem Adema, senior economist at the OECD, explained that this delay increases the likelihood that people will not have as many children as they originally intended due to the constraints of the biological clock.
This demographic shift, coupled with persistently low birth rates, poses significant challenges for European economies. Without immigration, a shrinking working-age population will strain public finances and limit economic growth, experts warn. As young people increasingly reach life milestones—such as buying a home—later in life, the average age of women at childbirth has risen to 31.1 years in 2023, up from 30.1 years a decade ago. In Germany, the average age is slightly higher, at 31.4 years, while it stands at over 32 years in Spain, Italy, and Ireland.
The decline in birth rates is not limited to countries with traditionally low fertility levels. In Finland, the birth rate dropped to 1.26 children per woman in 2023, its lowest level since records began in 1776. France, which had the highest fertility rate in the EU at 1.79 children per woman in 2022, also saw a decline to 1.67 in 2023.
In countries where fertility rates were already among the lowest in Europe, such as Spain and Italy, the trend is even more concerning. Spain’s birth rate fell to 1.12 children per woman, while Italy’s dropped to 1.2 in 2023.
The reasons behind the decline are multifaceted. Experts suggest that economic and political uncertainties, including concerns over job security, inflation, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, are contributing factors. Ann Berrington, a professor of demography at the University of Southampton, noted, “You might have a job, but if you’re worried about losing it, or worried about inflation or worried about conflict in Ukraine, then you still might hesitate to have children.”
Social attitudes also seem to be shifting. Adema pointed out that the evolving norms around parenting have led many young people to question whether they want children, noting that “quite a few young people say: ‘Well, in addition to the fact that I don’t need children to be happy, it would also be a very difficult job for me to do, and I’m not sure that I can take that responsibility.’”
As the Financial Times highlights, this growing trend of declining birth rates presents a formidable challenge for European governments, prompting calls for more robust family-friendly policies to support childbearing. The UN’s Guangyu Zhang emphasized the need for gender-responsive policy measures that would enable both women and men to have the children they desire, based on survey data that shows most people want larger families but feel constrained by current economic and social realities.
