There’s simply no substitute for experience in terms of aviation safety ~ Capt. Chesley Sullenberger
Josh Funk, writing his article Recent aviation disasters and close calls stoke fears about the safety of flying in The Canadian Press on 26 February highlights that in light of recent aviation incidents, questions inevitably arise regarding the continued safety of air travel. The aviation industry, long regarded as the gold standard of transportation safety, now finds itself under heightened scrutiny. While accidents remain rare, a series of high-profile events have captured public attention, leading to concerns about systemic vulnerabilities within the air transport system.
The most catastrophic of these events was the midair collision near Washington, D.C., which resulted in the loss of 67 lives. This tragedy was compounded by other occurrences: a landing accident in Toronto that left an aircraft overturned, a fiery crash in Philadelphia, and a single-engine aircraft accident in Alaska that claimed ten lives. Additionally, two light aircraft collided in Arizona, and a Southwest Airlines flight in Chicago narrowly averted disaster when it had to abort landing due to another aircraft crossing its intended runway. Further complicating matters, a go-around maneuver was required at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport to prevent an aircraft from coming into close proximity with another departing aircraft.
Recent ground incidents have also raised concerns. At Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, a Japan Airlines aircraft made unintended contact with the tail of a Delta Air Lines jet while taxiing. Meanwhile, security breaches have surfaced, with multiple stowaways found deceased in aircraft wheel wells and unauthorized passengers gaining access to aircraft. There have also been alarming in-flight events, such as a United Airlines aircraft catching fire during takeoff in Houston and an unauthorized passenger opening an emergency exit door while an aircraft was taxiing in Boston.
Understanding the Risks
Despite these incidents, the statistical probability of a fatal aviation accident remains exceedingly low. The United States, for instance, maintained an unparalleled safety record, with no fatal commercial airline crashes from 2009 until the tragic collision of an American Airlines jet and an Army helicopter on January 29, 2025. That incident, the deadliest in the U.S. since 2001, underscored the ever-present need for vigilance in aviation safety management.
Outside the U.S., fatal incidents continue to remind the global aviation community of the necessity for robust regulatory oversight. A major crash in South Korea recently claimed 179 lives, while past tragedies involving Boeing’s 737 Max aircraft in 2018 and 2019 cast a long shadow over aircraft certification and manufacturing processes. The uncontained failure of a door plug on a 737 Max in January 2024 further reinforced concerns about structural integrity and quality assurance.
Addressing Systemic Challenges
In addition to aircraft-specific concerns, systemic issues within air traffic management have been widely acknowledged. Aviation regulators have long cited understaffing, inadequate training, and infrastructure constraints as contributing factors to operational stress on the system. Calls for modernization of the air traffic control network, a concern that has persisted for years, were further amplified by President Donald Trump’s assertion that outdated technology played a role in the Washington D.C. collision.
Notwithstanding these challenges, authorities remain resolute in their commitment to maintaining air transport as the safest mode of travel. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have initiated comprehensive investigations into recent incidents, seeking to uncover root causes and recommend corrective actions. Historically, the NTSB has issued numerous safety recommendations, though implementation often encounters regulatory inertia.
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has underscored the imperative of prioritizing aviation safety, emphasizing the need for proactive risk mitigation and continuous system enhancements. While these incidents have justifiably heightened public awareness, the broader context of aviation safety must be understood: air travel remains statistically safer than road transport, with the probability of a fatal crash so low that it is difficult to quantify.
However, aviation safety is not measured merely in probabilities but in vigilance, regulatory diligence, and industry-wide commitment to continuous improvement. Every incident serves as a reminder that complacency has no place in an industry where precision and safety are paramount.
ICAO’s Safety Report: Trends and Insights
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) regularly publishes its Safety Report, drawing upon air transport and safety-related data provided by third parties. While this information is sourced from entities deemed reliable and is faithfully reproduced in the report, ICAO makes no warranties regarding its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. Furthermore, ICAO assumes no responsibility for any reliance placed on the report’s content. It is important to note that the views expressed therein do not necessarily represent the collective stance of ICAO Member States.
The most recent ICAO Safety Report indicates a downward trend in the annual number of aviation accidents between 2019 and 2023. The highest number of recorded accidents during this period was in 2019, with 114 occurrences. However, a significant reduction was observed in both 2020 and 2021, coinciding with a sharp decline in air traffic due to government-imposed restrictions aimed at mitigating the spread of COVID-19. As global travel restrictions eased in 2022, the aviation sector embarked on a gradual recovery, with air transport activity increasing. By 2023, passenger and flight volumes continued to rise, yet the number of accidents exhibited only a marginal increase. Notably, the incidence of fatal accidents demonstrated a marked decline.
For scheduled commercial operations involving aircraft with a maximum takeoff weight (MTOW) exceeding 5,700 kg, 2023 recorded a single fatal accident, occurring in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. This incident accounted for the totality of aviation-related fatalities in scheduled commercial operations for that year. Additionally, while accidents were reported across multiple regions—including APAC, Eastern and Southern Africa (ESAF), Europe and North Atlantic (EUR/NAT), North America, Central America and the Caribbean (NACC), and South America (SAM)—these incidents primarily resulted in significant aircraft damage or injuries to passengers and crew rather than fatalities.
Moreover, the year 2023 recorded the lowest fatality count in the past five years, underscoring the industry’s continued commitment to enhancing operational safety. The number of fatal accidents decreased from 72 in 2022 to an unprecedented low in 2023, reflecting the resilience and efficacy of aviation safety measures worldwide.
IATA’s 2024 Annual Safety Report: A Year of Progress and Challenges
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has published its 2024 Annual Safety Report, highlighting a year of robust safety performance across the aviation industry. While improvements were noted in key safety parameters compared to the five-year average, the sector experienced a slight regression from the exceptional safety record achieved in 2023.
The all-accident rate for 2024 stood at 1.13 per million flights—equivalent to one accident for every 880,000 flights. This represents an improvement over the five-year average of 1.25 but falls short of the 1.09 rate recorded in 2023. Over the course of 40.6 million flights in 2024, seven fatal accidents were reported, exceeding both the single fatal accident recorded in 2023 and the five-year average of five. A total of 244 onboard fatalities were registered, a significant increase from the 72 fatalities reported in 2023 and the five-year average of 144. Despite this, the overall fatality risk remained low at 0.06—below the five-year average of 0.10, albeit higher than the 0.03 recorded in 2023.
Addressing these statistics, Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, emphasized that despite recent high-profile aviation accidents, the overarching trajectory of aviation safety remains one of continuous enhancement. “In 2024, aviation recorded 40.6 million flights and seven fatal accidents. While accidents remain exceedingly rare, we must acknowledge that every fatality is one too many. A decade ago, the five-year average from 2011 to 2015 reflected one accident for every 456,000 flights. Today, that figure has improved to one accident per 810,000 flights. This progress underscores our industry’s unwavering commitment to safety. Every life lost in an aviation accident is a solemn reminder of the need for relentless safety advancements. The collection and analysis of safety data—including insights from the 2024 report—remain our most powerful tool in this pursuit.”
In its 2024 report IATA states that The tragic loss of two aircraft within conflict zones—one in Kazakhstan, which claimed 38 lives, and another in Sudan, resulting in five fatalities—has reinforced the exigency of bolstering protective measures in high-risk airspace. These occurrences serve as a stark reminder of the persistent dangers faced by civil aviation in geopolitically volatile regions. They further underscore the ongoing necessity of initiatives such as Safer Skies, which emerged in the wake of the PS752 tragedy and seeks to implement stringent safeguards for operations conducted in areas of heightened risk.
An analysis of accident typologies in 2024 reveals that the most recurrent incidents involved tail strikes and runway excursions, highlighting the imperative of enhanced operational vigilance during critical phases of flight. These findings underscore the necessity for robust procedural adherence in takeoff and landing operations, where aircraft are at their most vulnerable. It is notable, however, that no instances of controlled flight into terrain (CFIT) were recorded during this period—an encouraging testament to the efficacy of terrain awareness and warning systems, as well as the industry’s continued commitment to mitigating such occurrences.
Empirical evidence from the IATA Operational Safety Audit (IOSA) further affirms the correlation between stringent oversight and superior safety outcomes. Airlines maintaining IOSA registration, including all IATA member carriers, exhibited an accident rate of 0.92 per million flights, a significantly more favorable metric when contrasted with the 1.70 accident rate observed among non-IOSA carriers. This disparity reinforces the value of structured safety audits and adherence to internationally recognized standards in fostering operational resilience and minimizing risk.
Although incidents occurring in conflict zones are designated as security-related and therefore not encompassed within the statistical framework of this report, their implications for aviation safety remain profound. Furthermore, the escalating prevalence of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) interference constitutes an emerging and pressing concern, necessitating immediate and coordinated global intervention.
The deliberate or inadvertent targeting of civil aircraft in military conflicts is an unacceptable violation of international norms, demanding resolute action from the global community. Governments must enhance intelligence-sharing mechanisms and establish unambiguous protocols aimed at shielding civilian air operations from hostilities. As Willie Walsh poignantly observed, no civil aircraft should ever be placed in jeopardy as a consequence of military engagements.
The findings encapsulated in the 2024 safety report reaffirm that aviation, despite its intrinsic complexities, continues to uphold an exemplary safety record. However, the industry’s unwavering commitment to safety must remain unrelenting. The systematic collection and rigorous analysis of safety data, combined with strengthened international collaboration, will be indispensable in sustaining and further advancing the remarkable progress achieved in aviation safety.
My Take
The data presented in both the ICAO and IATA reports reaffirm the enduring commitment of the global aviation industry to safety. However, these reports also highlight areas necessitating further action. While the overall trend reflects a sustained improvement in accident rates, the increase in fatal accidents in 2024 underscores the inescapable reality that safety remains a dynamic and evolving challenge, requiring continuous vigilance, adaptation, and regulatory enhancement.
From a legal perspective, it is incumbent upon both States and industry stakeholders to fortify existing regulatory frameworks and introduce measures aimed at further mitigating risk. First and foremost, the persistent vulnerabilities associated with operations in conflict zones demand urgent international cooperation. The loss of civilian aircraft due to hostilities is not merely a safety issue—it constitutes a profound legal and ethical failure. States have a duty under international law to ensure that their airspace is either safe for civil operations or effectively restricted to prevent inadvertent exposure to hostilities. In this regard, existing mechanisms such as the Safer Skies initiative must be reinforced through binding international instruments that impose legal obligations on States to safeguard civilian aviation from armed conflict.
Equally critical is the imperative of addressing the rising threat posed by Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) interference, which presents a direct and immediate challenge to the safe operation of aircraft. The disruption of essential navigation services, whether due to deliberate jamming or unintentional interference, exposes passengers and crew to unacceptable levels of risk. Given that the integrity of GNSS is fundamental to modern aviation, States must establish stringent enforcement mechanisms to deter interference and work towards a harmonized regulatory approach under ICAO’s auspices.
Additionally, the disparity in accident rates between IOSA-registered airlines and non-IOSA carriers signals the need for regulatory bodies to encourage or mandate participation in comprehensive safety audits. While IOSA remains a voluntary standard, its demonstrable efficacy in reducing accident rates suggests that regulators should consider integrating similar oversight mechanisms into their national aviation safety programs.
Finally, a critical component of legal and regulatory enhancement lies in the continued strengthening of data-driven safety management systems. The aviation industry has long operated on the principle that every accident must serve as a lesson—an opportunity to refine procedures, identify systemic weaknesses, and implement corrective measures. It is therefore imperative that States not only ensure robust accident investigation protocols but also foster a culture of transparency and information-sharing that transcends jurisdictional boundaries. The legal framework governing accident investigations, including adherence to Annex 13 of the Chicago Convention, must be applied consistently to ensure that investigatory findings translate into meaningful policy changes at both the national and international levels.
In sum, while aviation remains the safest mode of transport, this status is neither accidental nor immutable. The industry’s exemplary safety record is the product of relentless regulatory oversight, technological advancement, and operational discipline. However, as the ICAO and IATA reports indicate, further progress will depend on the ability of States to enact legally binding measures that ensure the sanctity of civil aviation, particularly in conflict zones, the mitigation of GNSS interference, the universalization of safety oversight programs, and the continuous refinement of data-driven safety strategies. The legal fraternity, together with policymakers and aviation professionals, must remain steadfast in their collective pursuit of an aviation system in which risk is minimized to the greatest extent possible, recognizing that the ultimate objective of air law is the preservation of human life.
