India’s ambition to become a global economic superpower by 2047 may be at risk, as the country grapples with slowing GDP growth and an increasingly ageing population. Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s promises to transform India into a developed nation, the latest economic trends are casting doubt on the feasibility of these goals.
India’s GDP growth has slowed to 5.4% over the summer, a far cry from the 8% target needed to lift millions out of poverty. The slowdown has been exacerbated by a series of challenges, including unemployment, especially among educated youth. While Modi has urged the nation to remain hopeful, promising a shift to a high-income economy, millions of highly qualified Indians remain jobless. In Delhi, even Uber drivers and Amazon delivery agents hold master’s degrees, revealing the disconnect between educational attainment and employment opportunities.
The problem is compounded by a demographic shift. With 65% of India’s population under the age of 35, the nation is often touted as having an “economic dividend.” However, as McKinsey points out, the country faces the risk of growing old before it becomes rich, with a declining fertility rate and an ageing workforce. This trend could result in fewer working-age Indians contributing to economic growth in the coming years.
India’s goal of surpassing China to become Asia’s largest manufacturing hub, especially in technology sectors like chip manufacturing, also seems uncertain. Experts such as Biswajit Dhar have warned that the stagnation of the emerging middle class could hinder the country’s progress, with many Indians struggling to secure high-productivity jobs.
Moreover, Modi’s failure to address growing frustration over unemployment and stagnant wages may jeopardize his ability to inspire the nation. While India has made impressive strides, overtaking the UK to become the fifth-largest economy in 2022, analysts remain concerned about whether the country can overcome its demographic and economic hurdles in time to meet its ambitious 2047 target.
As The Times UK highlights, India’s prosperity may depend on faster economic growth and a shift in policy to ensure that wealth is more widely distributed across its population. With rising income inequality and millions of young people without meaningful employment, the path to becoming a developed nation appears more uncertain than ever.
