Iran is boasting that it now possesses more missiles than it did during the bloody 12-Day War with Israel, a claim that has rattled defense analysts and reignited concerns over a renewed Middle Eastern conflict. Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, declared that the country’s “missile power today far surpasses that of the 12-Day War,” calling the earlier Israeli assault a failure. Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh, Iran’s defense minister, added that production has increased “both in quantity and quality,” signaling a renewed emphasis on deterrence and readiness.
Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group told The New York Times that Iranian missile factories are now operating “24 hours a day,” with plans to fire as many as 2,000 missiles in the opening hours of a future war — a massive escalation compared to the 500 fired over 12 days last June. Analysts say this strategy is designed to overwhelm Israel’s missile defense systems, which were heavily taxed during the last conflict despite Israel’s claimed 86 percent interception success rate. Images of Israeli forces examining the wreckage of Iranian ballistic missiles in the Golan Heights underscored the scale of destruction and the continuing volatility between the two rivals.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told The War Zone (TWZ) that Iran has not only ramped up production but also refined its tactics. “The Islamic Republic learned how to fire less and get more bang for your buck,” Taleblu said, describing how Tehran adjusted launch sequences and target selection during the conflict. He added that Iran’s leadership appears determined to improve both the range and lethality of its missiles, including the Fattah-1, Haj Qassem, and Kheibar Shekan systems—each designed to evade interception with higher speeds and terminal maneuverability.
Yet Iran’s push to rebuild has raised fresh alarms in Western capitals. Intelligence reports cited by CNN suggest that China has supplied Iran with thousands of tons of sodium perchlorate, a key ingredient for solid rocket fuel. The shipments, reportedly arriving at the port of Bandar Abbas, could significantly boost Iran’s capacity to mass-produce advanced medium-range ballistic missiles. European sources have described these deliveries as a “determined effort to rebuild the Islamic Republic’s depleted missile stocks,” despite U.S. sanctions on the entities involved.
At the same time, Beijing is said to be considering a deal to provide Iran with HQ-9 air defense systems, potentially helping Tehran recover from the losses it suffered during Israel’s air campaign. Israel’s rapid attainment of air superiority in June left Iran’s defensive network crippled, a vulnerability the regime is now desperate to correct.
The missile buildup coincides with growing U.S. concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Washington insists that its June operation — dubbed Midnight Hammer — crippled Iran’s nuclear infrastructure by targeting key facilities at Fordow and Natanz with massive bunker-busting bombs. However, new intelligence points to another clandestine site, “Pickaxe Mountain,” which Iran has refused to open to international inspectors. The New York Times described the current situation as a “dangerous stalemate,” with no negotiations, no oversight, and mounting tension across the Gulf.
Taleblu told TWZ that this military and political deadlock could dictate the timeline of the next war. “There is a race to build back better,” he said. “For Israel, it’s interceptors. For the Islamic Republic of Iran, it’s medium-range ballistic missiles. The fuzzy math between the two may determine when the next round takes place.”
As Iran rebuilds and retools its arsenal — and Israel bolsters its defenses — the uneasy calm that followed the 12-Day War looks increasingly fragile. Each side is arming for a future they both insist they want to avoid, yet seem unable to prevent.
