Japan may soon make history with its first female prime minister, as Sanae Takaichi rises among the frontrunners in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) leadership contest. The election, scheduled for October 4, comes at a critical juncture for the party, which has struggled to maintain a majority in both chambers of parliament.
Takaichi, a hardline conservative and former contender in last year’s LDP leadership race, faces competition from agriculture minister Shinjiro Koizumi, widely regarded as a reformist advocate for diversity and gender equality. Analysts note that if Takaichi wins both party and parliamentary votes, her appointment would mark a significant milestone in a country where women remain underrepresented in politics.
“Having a woman become prime minister could really shift how the world sees Japan,” said Hiroko Takeda, a professor at Nagoya University’s Graduate School of Law, who studies politics and gender issues. Japan currently ranks 118th out of 148 countries in the World Economic Forum’s Gender Gap Index, with particularly low scores in political and economic participation. Women make up just 15.7% of the lower house, well below the global average of 27.1%, according to the Inter-Parliamentary Union.
A native of Nara Prefecture, Takaichi has cited former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as a key inspiration. While historically not a strong advocate for women’s issues, she has recently proposed policies aimed at supporting working families. On Friday, she pledged partial tax deductions for babysitting fees and corporate tax incentives for companies offering in-house childcare. She also emphasized raising awareness around women’s health, drawing on her own experiences with caregiving and menopause.
Takaichi’s shift toward a more sympathetic stance on family and women’s issues could present a challenge to Koizumi, who previously supported allowing married couples to keep separate surnames, a symbolic measure for gender equality. Takaichi, by contrast, has opposed such changes in the past, though she did not address the issue in her recent press conference.
Experts caution that Takaichi’s potential premiership could be shaped by the so-called “glass cliff” phenomenon, where women are promoted to leadership roles during periods of crisis when the risk of failure is high. The LDP faces a fractured legislature, with looming no-confidence threats and the challenge of negotiating critical legislation, including national budgets and economic packages.
“Japan has limited precedent for women in top political positions,” Takeda said. “If she fails, people may simply dismiss her tenure as an experiment and prevent her from regaining influence.” Similar patterns have been observed in other democracies, such as the UK, where Theresa May and Liz Truss assumed office amid political crises, and Australia, where Sussan Ley became the first female leader of the Liberal Party following electoral setbacks.
Takaichi also lacks dynastic backing, unlike Koizumi, whose father is a former prime minister. That factor, analysts say, could heighten the risk that the LDP may quickly sideline its first potential female leader if she encounters difficulties.
Bloomberg analysts note that the outcome of this leadership race will not only influence domestic policy but could also signal Japan’s approach to gender representation in governance, potentially reshaping perceptions of the country on the global stage.
