Russia’s oil production and exports are projected to remain stable this year, even as the industry faces its most difficult period since the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Moscow-based Kasatkin Consulting.
The firm estimates that crude and condensate output will stay flat at 10.3 million barrels per day in 2025, rising slightly to 10.4 million barrels per day over the next two years. Exports are expected to hold at 4.8 million barrels per day.
“The industry is going through its most difficult period since 2020,” said Dmitry Kasatkin, managing partner at Kasatkin Consulting. He cited worsening production conditions, personnel shortages, technological gaps, high concentration of buyers, and technical barriers to exports as key pressures on Russia’s oil sector.
Western sanctions following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine have targeted the country’s energy sector, aiming to limit President Vladimir Putin’s financing of the war. Russia has adapted by rerouting exports primarily to China, India, and Turkey, offering wider discounts, and building a shadow fleet of tankers to circumvent restrictions.
Lower global crude prices and a stronger ruble have added to the challenges. Urals, Russia’s main export grade, has fallen amid fears of a global supply surplus, compounded by OPEC+’s faster-than-expected return of curtailed production. A stronger ruble reduces domestic currency revenue per barrel sold.
Kasatkin Consulting projects the average Urals price will decline more than 13% to $59 a barrel in 2025, with taxes accounting for roughly 42% of the price. Despite expected revenue drops of over 10% for major Russian producers, the firm forecasts continued investment in production to sustain output.
