As speculation intensifies around the successor to Pope Francis, a diplomatic accord with China may emerge as a decisive factor — and a potential stumbling block — for one of the top contenders, Cardinal Pietro Parolin. The Financial Times reports that Parolin’s central role in negotiating the Vatican’s controversial 2018 agreement with Beijing is shaping perceptions of his candidacy, as Church leaders gather to choose the next pontiff.
Parolin, 70, served as Pope Francis’s Secretary of State and was a trusted confidant throughout his papacy. As bookmakers rank him among the leading frontrunners for the papacy, his crowning diplomatic legacy — brokering a deal with the Chinese Communist Party over bishop appointments — is drawing both praise and intense criticism.
The deal was designed to reconcile the divide between the underground Catholic churches loyal to Rome and the state-sanctioned Catholic Patriotic Association, which answers to Beijing. Under Parolin’s guidance, the Vatican conceded a formal role for the Chinese government in selecting bishops — a move intended to heal a longstanding rift but which many see as appeasement of an authoritarian regime.
Hong Kong’s outspoken Cardinal Joseph Zen — one of the deal’s fiercest critics — called it a betrayal of the faithful. “Generations of Chinese Catholics have been martyred for their refusal to accept Communist control of the Catholic Church,” said John Allen Jr., editor of the Catholic news site Crux, as quoted by the Financial Times. “Some of them regard this deal as a betrayal of their suffering.”
Despite these concerns, Vatican insiders still see Parolin as a formidable candidate. “He is a very strong candidate — the strongest right now,” said Iacopo Scaramuzzi, a veteran journalist and author covering Catholic Church politics. “Cardinal Parolin is a mediator — both because of his role and because of his character.”
Still, the backlash from the China deal could complicate Parolin’s path to securing the two-thirds majority needed among the 133 voting cardinals. According to Financial Times, odds have recently shifted in favour of Cardinal Luis Tagle of the Philippines, placing the two in a tight race.
Parolin’s defenders argue the deal was a pragmatic compromise aimed at preserving the unity of China’s estimated 6 to 12 million Catholics. Historian Agostino Giovagnoli noted that Francis — along with his predecessors John Paul II and Benedict XVI — sought to end the decades-long division. “The community was divided,” Giovagnoli told Financial Times. “Now they can celebrate Mass together… The deal was the lesser of two evils.”
However, critics remain unconvinced. Lucia Cheung of the Chinese University of Hong Kong said the agreement left Beijing with too much influence, potentially undermining the Church’s autonomy. “It’s a trap,” she warned. Francesco Sisci, an expert on Vatican-China relations, said the results have been disappointing. “Too much investment for too little return,” he remarked.
Adding to the tension, Cardinal Zen — though too old to vote — has travelled to Rome to take part in pre-conclave discussions. Analysts expect him to lobby for a pope who will take a firmer stance against autocratic regimes.
According to Financial Times, Vatican experts agree the China deal will be an enduring part of Parolin’s legacy. “It is the most important diplomatic achievement of Pope Francis’s pontificate, and Parolin owns it,” said Massimo Faggioli, a Church historian at Villanova University. “Some see it as a sign of wise diplomacy, others as moral weakness.”
