While explaining the reasons for inviting Prime Minister Modi to the forthcoming G7 conference in Canada, the Prime Minister of Canada pointed out two primary factors: India emerging as the fifth-largest economy in the world, and India being the most populous country globally. The question is whether the “qualification” of being the most populous country should be a matter of pride or concern for India.
At present, the exact population of India is not clearly known, since the last population census was conducted in 2011—around fourteen years ago. It is vaguely estimated that India’s population could be around 1.4 billion. Certainly, demographic trends in India have changed significantly in recent years. The upcoming population census, scheduled for 2026, will provide a clearer picture of India’s total population and regional population density. In any case, it is evident that both population growth and the death rate are showing a degree of decline. There is a general consensus that India’s population will continue to grow at an annual rate of 1.5% to 2% in the coming years, potentially reaching 1.8 billion by 2050.
Lack of Concern About Population Growth
During the last eleven years under Prime Minister Modi, population control has not been emphasised as a matter of utmost importance. It appears that the Modi government has left the issue to fate. There seems to be a lack of awareness regarding the serious consequences that can arise in an overpopulated country. The recent decision of the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh to offer financial incentives for having more children has shocked discerning observers.
Viewing Population Growth as a Non-Issue
It must be acknowledged that India is growing economically and industrially and is emerging as one of the world’s stronger economies. A recent World Bank survey highlighted that extreme poverty among the Indian population has declined to around 5%, down from a previous high of 27%.
In such conditions, some argue that population growth need not be a concern and is a non-issue.
In defence of this viewpoint, it is often noted, for example, that India has emerged as the largest rice-producing country in the world, with domestic stockpiles reaching record levels. As of 15 May 2025, India reportedly holds 38.19 million tonnes of rice in storage—well above the mandatory buffer norm of 13.54 million tonnes. In addition, unmilled paddy capable of yielding 21.36 million tonnes of rice is also available. The Food Corporation of India is reportedly struggling with inadequate storage facilities due to surplus. With such stockpiles, the Indian government is now distributing rice free of cost to millions of poor citizens.
The essence of this view is that economic growth can absorb the impact of population growth, particularly by harnessing the potential of a larger workforce to further drive the economy.
The Job Creation Challenge
While the Modi government’s economic performance over the last eleven years has inspired confidence that the country’s economic growth can sustain its high population density, it has not yet resolved the serious issue of unemployment.
It is said that “an idle brain is the devil’s workshop.” Job creation is critical to ensure that the large working-age population remains productively engaged. However, it appears unlikely that adequate job creation will occur anytime soon, given the sheer size of the population and its continued growth.
Job creation will become even more challenging in the years ahead, especially in light of technological advancements—particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), drones, robotics, and automation. There is a growing global consensus that millions of traditional jobs will be lost to these technologies.
AI can now outperform many human programmers. Corporate white-collar roles—particularly those involving repetitive tasks such as drafting memos, creating presentations, and compiling spreadsheets—are increasingly vulnerable. Robots have achieved such precision that they can now replace both factory and domestic workers. Google recently launched Veo3, a tool capable of generating movie-quality videos with sound and AI-generated actors, all from a single text prompt.
While technological revolutions inevitably create new job avenues, they are unlikely to provide alternative employment for millions displaced from traditional sectors.
With India’s ongoing modernisation and economic growth, and the increasing role of AI, drones, and robotics in various industries, providing employment to millions will become an insurmountable challenge. Feeding a growing population amid high unemployment may result in social unrest and a range of crises that could threaten national stability.
Migrant Concerns in Western Countries
As India’s population grows and domestic job opportunities lag behind, more Indians are seeking employment in wealthier, advanced nations.
This trend is likely to persist, but countries such as those in Europe, Canada, and the USA—which follow democratic systems—are already facing complex issues related to migration, especially from Islamic countries.
A few years ago, then German Chancellor Angela Merkel, without adequate foresight or planning, allowed thousands of Islamic migrants into Germany based on humanitarian grounds. These migrants have since dispersed across Europe, contributing to incidents of street violence.
Many Islamic migrants tend not to prioritise family planning and have high birth rates. Additionally, their distinct value systems and religious practices often clash with European lifestyles, resulting in social tensions.
In the USA, millions of illegal migrants from Mexico, Latin America, and Asia have caused concern. Former President Trump recognised the threat posed to internal security and attempted to identify and deport these migrants. However, their sheer numbers have made this a formidable challenge. Protests—such as those recently seen in Los Angeles—have erupted in response to deportation efforts.
Canada, historically open to migrants, is now facing the consequences of its lenient policies. The country has inadvertently become a base for organising separatist movements and has witnessed increasing street violence.
Realising the gravity of the migrant crisis, many Western countries are now attempting to “export” their migrant populations. However, such strategies are proving ineffective, as many migrants have no viable options for repatriation. Forced deportations are likely to spark violence and deepen security crises.
Western nations now appear to be coming to terms with the fact that they must live with millions of migrants of diverse cultures and skill levels, and adapt to the resulting demographic transformations.
India’s Population Growth – A Global Concern
Approximately 2.5 million Indians migrate abroad annually, making India the world’s largest source of emigrants.
Traditionally, English-speaking nations such as the US, UK, Australia, and Canada have been the most sought-after destinations for Indian students and professionals.
Although a large number of Indians also migrate to the Middle East for employment, they are usually not permitted to settle there. In contrast, Indians moving to Western countries often settle permanently, eventually gain citizenship, and bring their families.
Unlike many Islamic migrants, Indian migrants often possess skills—at low, medium, or high levels—and thus are generally not viewed as negatively. However, as their numbers rise, Western countries are starting to consider curbing immigration from India. Policy shifts in this direction are already evident.
In the coming years, anti-immigrant sentiment is likely to intensify as demographic shifts alter the social fabric of Western nations.
Given the relatively small native populations of Western countries, the continued influx of millions of Indian migrants is bound to lead to long-term demographic changes—changes that are unlikely to be welcomed without resistance from the host populations.
In this context, Western nations are likely to scrutinise the migrant situation more closely and may identify India’s growing population as a key contributing factor. They could increasingly regard it as a matter of global concern, given the potential for further population growth in India to intensify migration pressures on their own societies.
