Europe’s ability to contribute significant ground forces to a potential “deterrence” mission in Ukraine appears increasingly doubtful, with defence chiefs expressing concerns about the continent’s military capabilities, according to sources close to ongoing discussions.
The Times has revealed that, despite ambitions for a 64,000-strong multinational force, Europe is likely to struggle to muster even 25,000 troops. Defence ministers from across the continent, in talks with British officials, have expressed doubts about their ability to reach such targets, citing undermanned and underfunded armies.
The discussions, which took place during meetings of the “coalition of the willing,” have shown a growing sense of caution among European powers when it comes to committing large numbers of troops to Ukraine. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the UK’s Chief of Defence Staff, had proposed a force of 64,000 as a deterrent in the event of a peace deal in Ukraine, with Britain willing to contribute up to 10,000 personnel. However, sources say European ministers quickly rejected this figure, with some suggesting that even 25,000 troops would be a “stretch” for a joint effort.
According to the source, while Britain and France remain open to sending training troops to western Ukraine, there is little appetite for a full-scale deployment on the ground. The focus, instead, is likely to shift toward supporting Ukraine’s military through air and sea protection, along with bolstering its rearmament efforts.
Concerns over the feasibility of a 64,000-strong force were raised during a “coalition of the willing” meeting on April 10, which continued in smaller, more candid discussions in Brussels. It was pointed out that the scale of commitment required would mean rotating 256,000 troops over two years to maintain a presence. Lithuania’s Defence Minister, Dovile Sakaliene, made a blunt remark in the meeting, stating, “If we can’t even raise 64,000, that doesn’t look weak — it is weak.” Her passionate words underscored the challenges facing European allies as they struggle to align on military strategy.
The discussions also highlighted Europe’s dependency on the United States for a serious deterrent against Russia. Some participants noted that deploying special forces could be an easier solution, avoiding the need for parliamentary approval. However, many European countries, including Poland, Spain, and Italy, have made it clear that they would not commit any soldiers to the ground force. Estonia and Finland expressed concerns that such a deployment would weaken their own border defences, while Finland and Germany were also generally opposed to sending ground forces, though Germany has not entirely ruled it out.
Further complicating the situation, Britain’s own military readiness has been called into question, with sources noting that the British Army is shrinking and facing shortages in key areas, such as artillery and logistical support. This has led to a shift in strategy, with training missions becoming a more likely scenario for British and French forces in Ukraine, rather than frontline deployments or protection of Ukrainian military infrastructure.
As of now, a Ministry of Defence in UK spokesperson emphasized that operational planning within the “coalition of the willing” is ongoing, with a focus on regenerating Ukrainian armed forces through a mix of land, sea, and air support. The spokesperson reiterated that, while a peace deal remains the goal, military support for Ukraine will continue to be ramped up in the face of Russia’s ongoing invasion.
