The Chief Minister of the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh recently sparked widespread concern by suggesting that families should consider having more children. Similarly, the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu stated that each family should aim for sixteen children.
These remarks have shocked many discerning Indians, with numerous people considering them careless and thoughtless.
It is well recognized that India is an overpopulated country with one of the highest population densities globally. The views of these two chief ministers run counter to the national consensus on the two-child norm.
It is difficult to understand why such statements were made by individuals who should know better.
India’s Alarming Population Growth and Future Outlook
India’s population, which was around 359 million (35.9 crore) in 1950, has surged to approximately 1.44 billion (144 crore) in 2024.
Historical Population Data in India
| Year | Population (crore, rounded) | Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 35.7 | – |
| 1960 | 44.5 | 2.31% |
| 1970 | 55.7 | 2.23% |
| 1980 | 69.6 | 2.29% |
| 1990 | 87.0 | 2.16% |
| 2000 | 105.9 | 1.84% |
| 2010 | 124.0 | 1.39% |
| 2020 | 139.6 | 0.96% |
| 2021 | 140.7 | 0.80% |
| 2022 | 141.7 | 0.68% |
| 2023 | 142.8 | 0.81% |
| 2024 | 144.1 | 0.92% |
If current trends continue, population growth is unlikely to fall below 0.8% per annum, especially with increasing longevity now averaging around 65 years. By 2050, India’s population could exceed 1.7 billion (170 crore).
Population Density Trends in India
| Year | Population per sq. km | Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 428.19 | 0.80% |
| 2022 | 431.11 | 0.68% |
| 2023 | 434.60 | 0.81% |
| 2024 | 438.58 | 0.92% |
India’s population density has steadily increased over the years, surpassing most other countries.
Comparison of Population Density with Other Countries
| Country | Population Density (per sq. km) | Land Area (sq. km) |
|---|---|---|
| India | 488 | 2,973,190 |
| China | 151 | 9,388,211 |
| United States | 38 | 9,147,420 |
| Brazil | 25 | 8,358,140 |
| Canada | 4 | 9,093,510 |
| Russia | 9 | 16,376,870 |
| Germany | 243 | 348,560 |
| United Kingdom | 286 | 241,930 |
| France | 122 | 547,557 |
| Japan | 339 | 364,555 |
| South Africa | 53 | 1,213,090 |
| Australia | 3 | 7,682,300 |
India has one of the highest population densities in the world, presenting unique challenges.
Economic Growth and Job Creation Struggling to Keep Pace
Despite India’s economic growth and advancements across sectors, a significant portion of the population remains below or just above the poverty line. Economic growth has not kept pace with population growth, especially as the population continues to rise.
The notion that India can match job creation with population growth is unrealistic. Technological advances, including automation and artificial intelligence, will likely reduce manpower needs, making job creation challenging. Increasing population without adequate employment will only lead to social tension and unrest, as the saying goes, “an idle mind is the devil’s workshop.”
The Myth of Demographic Dividend
The notion of a demographic dividend in India is misleading. This potential benefit can only be realized if there are jobs for people at all skill levels. The current high unemployment rates demonstrate that this dividend is not being achieved.
Likely Increase in Migration
As job opportunities fail to match population growth, more Indians may seek work abroad, which could lead to social tensions in destination countries and affect India’s international relations.
India’s Population Carrying Capacity
To address India’s overpopulation, we must consider factors such as:
- Economic growth and potential growth
- Land area and natural resources
- Water scarcity
- Urban migration due to job scarcity
- Environmental impact from waste
A holistic approach suggests that an optimum population for India would be around 1 billion (100 crore). Achieving this could lead India towards greater prosperity.
Recommended Strategies
Strong Public Campaign
A vigorous campaign is needed to raise awareness of overpopulation risks. Although birth rates are declining in some states, India’s overall population could increase by another 400 million (40 crore) before stabilizing. This would be an unsustainable burden on resources.
Empowerment of Women
Empowering women and raising awareness about the need for population control is essential. This can be achieved through extensive public outreach.
Consideration of a One-Child Policy
India might consider a voluntary one-child policy, similar to China’s approach, though implemented through persuasion rather than compulsion. Incentives could be offered to families that choose to have one child.
Establishment of a Population Sustainability Index
Each state should have a population sustainability index to set population targets appropriate for its specific needs and resources.
Ban on Polygamy
A ban on polygamy, in which a man marries multiple women, could also help reduce population growth and uphold the dignity of women.
Prognosis
The central and state governments must act swiftly. India’s future stability depends on achieving an affordable population level, which must be substantially lower than the current trajectory.
China has given up the one child norm because of an aging population and other complications.They have adopted now a three child policy.Perhaps AP CM is thinking of this.I also feel this is reasonable.